Three months have passed since the attacks on Mumbai’s hotels and train station, and much diplomacy and mudslinging between the Indian and Pakistani governments has resulted in few concrete solutions to the problem of terrorism. With a few more perishing and tens more affected directly by terrorism with each passing day in Pakistan, Islamists have effectively compromised that country’s internal security to the point where anyone non-muslim and any unislamic activity, even by a muslim, will be attacked with severe penalties. The United States has continued their strident attacks on Pakistani territory and continue to flagrantly violate that country’s sovereignity, using unmanned aircraft, even as rumours abound that such attacks are the result of an arrangement between the US and the Pakistan government. The Taliban has taken refuge in the northern areas of Pakistan and have infiltrated most of Peshawar, even as Karachi remains a stronghold for many Islamist extremists.
Yesterday’s shameful attacks on Srilankan cricket players touring Pakistan simply reinforces the opinion of many political analysts who claim that Pakistan is a failed state and a country out of control. Various unrepentant and strong opinions have made the news since mid last year when attacks by American troops and aircraft began in earnest inside Pakistan territory. One opinion that has been endorsed by most is that of Madeleine Albright, who justifyably called Pakistan an “international migraine“. French, Polish, Indians and Chinese have all been targets of Islamist extremists in Pakistan, and the trend started quite a few years ago, with the Daniel Pearl assassination. The fact is now out in the open that the US’ long standing ally in the war on terror managed to be that at the expense of double standards in the way the then government (Musharraf’s) looked at terrorism – as a double edged sword – one that could consume Pakistan from the north and therefore should be fought, in order to gain sympathy from the US, and one that could be used against the Indians in Kashmir via Lashkar-e-Taiba and similar “separatists” to eventually cede Kashmir to Pakistan. Fortunately, the truth is out now and many in the western media are questioning the very status of Pakistan as an ally of the US. With the end of the Musharraf government and the growing problems in Pakistan, separatism in Kashmir has taken on a different shade and it is possible that Kashmiris will become more pragmatic about their relationship with India. It is possible that many Kashmiris are now skeptical of whether they will be safe or any better off if part of Pakistan.
There are other palpable causes for worry in India. The threat of a nuclear attack on India by terrorists operating from Pakistan is extremely probable, according to the Indian Navy chief. Analysts around the world, especially in the US, have long wondered about such a possibility, so the Indian Navy is a little late to the party, essentially. It is a well known fact that Pakistan nuclear material production facilities in Kahuta are close to the North West Frontier Province and Islamabad. Islamabad, Lahore and the NWFP are all tightly packed into the northern part of Pakistan and face a very real threat of being taken over by Islamists and the Taliban. The release of A Q Khan, a prominent figure in the Pakistan nuclear programme also proven to have links with Al Qaeda is another step in the wrong direction. It is possible that military organizations like the Al Qaeda may enlist young engineers and experts such as Khan to build or use nuclear devices for Jihad. Another speculation that is doing the rounds these days is the prospect of a “dirty bomb”, which essentially spreads fissile, radioactive material over large urban areas, prompting panic from the residents, while doing little real damage to property.
What is more worrisome than the inaction and inept governance, security and double dealing in Pakistan, is the US’ pandering to military elements in Pakistan. General Kayani was recently awarded an American medal for his contribution to America’s war on terrorism. While this may appear to be a genuine front for America to support Pakistan’s effort, it may be evaluated as a policy of appeasement, which may help the US in case the existing instability in Pakistan spirals into anarchy and results in the fall of the existing democratic government. As it has happened in the past, the army generals in Pakistan usually take the reins of power from failed democratic governments on the pretext of illegalities, inept governance or conspiracy. The US will move to stabilize the fragile economic and political situation in Pakistan and indeed, such efforts are already under way. However, the multiple factors that support the terrorists themselves while becoming a disadvantage to Americans and others who are fighting the terrorists have been rarely examined. A chief cause of worry is the presence of large financial networks across the USA, UK, the Middle East, India and Indonesia, which support Islamist fundamentalist and terrorist activities in the name of charity. What start as innocuous organizations to propagate Islam in the US turn into hubs for smuggling weapons, laundering money and supporting the terror cause, not unlike what the LTTE’s supporters have done in the UK, USA and Canada. Hawala scams, stamp paper scandals, counterfeit money, oil money from the Middle East, weapons smuggling in Palestine, Yemen and Saudi Arabia are just some of the factors that are in favour of the terrorists. As long as the US relies on Saudi Arabia for oil, the money they spend there will directly profit terrorists. In addition to this, there have been lapses in the weapons supply chain to the American troops.
What does the future hold? Liberal Islamic culture has been dealt a death blow in northern Pakistan and important cities like Karachi and Peshawar. Cities like Islamabad and Karachi are now no strangers to Islamic terrorism, with the Marriot bombing and the attacks on Srilankan cricket players. I see this insurgency in Pakistan mounting to a point where the government is overthrown and Pakistan is taken over by a pro-Islamist government or even the Taliban. The process will certainly see much confrontation between the forces in question – the Taliban, Pakistan and the US. The Indian security situation has not improved markedly since the Mumbai attacks thanks to our bureaucratic red-tape and niggardly defence spending, because our politicians are too busy thinking of their vote banks now. Chances are very high that the major celebrations of Indian democracy and sport, viz. the Lok Sabha elections and the Indian Premier League, will be targeted.
I believe there is bound to be at least one major terrorist attack on Indian soil in the coming year, because I believe things have changed little since Mumbai, and the advantage is still with the terrorists and that our internal security is still toothless. The rest of this year will probably also see one of two things – a polarization of India’s muslim community into hardliners and secularists, in a sort of internal socio-political confrontation of the realities of the Pakistan situation in India. The re-election of the UPA government (which seems to be the most likely outcome of the 2009 elections in India) will strengthen the Congress’ current trend for complacency, patchy governance and instances of corruption and will naturally impede the development of our internal security and further increase crisis response time. The trouble is that the alternatives Indian voters have are not any better, with the Left parties being, at best, political opportunists and the BJP deteriorating from a genuine opposition in 1996/98 to the somewhat ignored hardliners whose agendas sometimes match no one’s needs. Religious polarization will probably rise in India too, in a copy-cat reaction to the Islamists or as an anti-muslim sentiment – hardliners will grow in numbers. There is bound to be much introspection by the Indian media and much talk (and probably little action, as is customary) from the Indian political class. The US will probably intensify its war in northern Pakistan and may impose a number of sanctions if any regime change occurs in Pakistan by force. Chances are that another military uprising in Bangladesh may cripple the elected government there or may aid the Islamists in that country. On the whole, South Asia seems to be headed to a flash point where there are bound to be numerous conflicts, political upheavals and terrorist attacks over the next year and possibly the next few years.
